Burnley F.C.vs
Newcastle United F.C.Burnley F.C. 1-3 Newcastle United F.C. — Result, H2H & Form
English Premier LeagueTue, 30 Dec 2025 19:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Newcastle United F.C.52%
- Burnley F.C. 25%
- Draw 23%
- Newcastle United F.C. 52%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Newcastle United F.C., rating it at 52.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Burnley F.C. won none of them. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 23.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
Burnley F.C.: LDLDD
Newcastle United F.C.: WWDDL
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 8Games
- 3.13Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-30 | Burnley F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. | 1–3 |
| 2025-12-06 | Newcastle United F.C. vs Burnley F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2024-05-04 | Burnley vs Newcastle | 1–4 |
| 2023-09-30 | Newcastle vs Burnley | 2–0 |
| 2022-05-22 | Burnley vs Newcastle | 1–2 |
| 2021-12-04 | Newcastle vs Burnley | 1–0 |
| 2021-04-11 | Burnley vs Newcastle | 1–2 |
| 2020-10-03 | Newcastle vs Burnley | 3–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Burnley F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Newcastle United F.C. (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Burnley F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. kick off?
- Tue, 30 Dec 2025 19:30 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Burnley F.C. vs Newcastle United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 0 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.13 goals per game.