Athletic Bilbaovs
Deportivo AlavesAthletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves Prediction, H2H & Stats
La LigaSun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Athletic Bilbao54%
- Athletic Bilbao 54%
- Draw 29%
- Deportivo Alaves 17%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Athletic Bilbao, rating it at 54.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Athletic Bilbao won 5 of 10, with 3 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Athletic Bilbao's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 1. Deportivo Alaves's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Athletic Bilbao's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Athletic Bilbao: WWDWW
Deportivo Alaves: WWDLW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 1.60Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 10%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao | 2–4 |
| 2025-09-13 | Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves | 0–1 |
| 2025-05-11 | Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves | 1–0 |
| 2024-12-15 | Deportivo Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–1 |
| 2024-03-16 | Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves | 2–0 |
| 2023-09-22 | Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–2 |
| 2022-01-09 | Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao | 0–0 |
| 2021-10-01 | Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves | 1–0 |
| 2021-04-10 | Athletic Bilbao vs Alaves | 0–0 |
| 2020-10-04 | Alaves vs Athletic Bilbao | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves?
- Tofiko's model favours Athletic Bilbao (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves kick off?
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMT — La Liga.
- What is the Athletic Bilbao vs Deportivo Alaves head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 3 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 1.60 goals per game.