Chicago Firevs
Saint Louis CityChicago Fire 3-2 Saint Louis City — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 17 Aug 2025 02:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire62%
- Chicago Fire 62%
- Draw 19%
- Saint Louis City 18%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 62.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Chicago Fire won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 62.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 19.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026.
Chicago Fire: DWWWW
Saint Louis City: WDWDW
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026.
- 2Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | Chicago Fire vs Saint Louis City | 1–2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Chicago Fire vs Saint Louis City | 3–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Saint Louis City?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs Saint Louis City kick off?
- Sun, 17 Aug 2025 02:00 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs Saint Louis City head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.