Toronto FCvs
Chicago FireToronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire44%
- Toronto FC 33%
- Draw 23%
- Chicago Fire 44%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 43.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Toronto FC won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 43.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 14 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Toronto FC: WDWDL
Chicago Fire: DWWWW
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026. Kickoff is still 14 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 3Games
- 3.33Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (44% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.33 goals per game.