Chicago Firevs
Toronto FCChicago Fire 2-2 Toronto FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 05 Oct 2025 00:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire54%
- Chicago Fire 54%
- Draw 23%
- Toronto FC 23%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 54.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Chicago Fire won 2 of 4, with 2 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 54.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Toronto FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 10 Sep 2026.
Chicago Fire: DDDLD
Toronto FC: WDDWD
Head-to-head
As of 10 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 4–4 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC kick off?
- Sun, 05 Oct 2025 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.50 goals per game.