Toronto FCvs
Chicago FireToronto FC 4-4 Chicago Fire — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire39%
- Toronto FC 36%
- Draw 24%
- Chicago Fire 39%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 39.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Toronto FC won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 39.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Toronto FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 13 Sep 2026.
Toronto FC: WDDWD
Chicago Fire: DDDLD
Head-to-head
As of 13 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.50Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 4–4 |
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (39% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.50 goals per game.