Toronto FCvs
Chicago FireToronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire44%
- Toronto FC 33%
- Draw 23%
- Chicago Fire 44%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 43.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Toronto FC won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 43.9% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Chicago Fire's last 5 produced 18 goals — 3.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. Toronto FC's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Toronto FC: DLDDL
Chicago Fire: LLWWW
Head-to-head
- 3Games
- 3.33Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Chicago Fire vs Toronto FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-03-15 | Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (44% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.33 goals per game.