FC Cincinnativs
New York City FCFC Cincinnati vs New York City FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerWed, 19 Aug 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Cincinnati52%
- FC Cincinnati 52%
- Draw 24%
- New York City FC 25%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Cincinnati, rating it at 51.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and FC Cincinnati won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 51.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. FC Cincinnati's last 5 produced 28 goals — 5.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. New York City FC's 5 produced 13, at 2.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- FC Cincinnati's games are very high-scoring at 5.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Cincinnati: LWWWD
New York City FC: DWWLL
Head-to-head
- 3Games
- 3.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati | 4–4 |
| 2025-08-23 | FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC | 0–1 |
| 2025-05-04 | New York City FC vs FC Cincinnati | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Cincinnati (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC kick off?
- Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.33 goals per game.