New York City FCvs
New York Red BullsNew York City FC vs New York Red Bulls Prediction, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerFri, 18 Sep 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs New York City FC50%
- New York City FC 50%
- Draw 26%
- New York Red Bulls 25%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick New York City FC, rating it at 49.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and New York City FC won 3 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 49.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
New York City FC: LDDDL
New York Red Bulls: LDLDL
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 3.25Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC | 1–1 |
| 2026-04-29 | New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-09-27 | New York Red Bulls vs New York City FC | 2–3 |
| 2025-05-17 | New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls?
- Tofiko's model favours New York City FC (50% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls kick off?
- Fri, 18 Sep 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York City FC vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.25 goals per game.