New York City FCvs
Philadelphia UnionNew York City FC vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs New York City FC41%
- New York City FC 41%
- Draw 26%
- Philadelphia Union 33%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick New York City FC, rating it at 41.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and New York City FC won 1 of 2. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 41.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 24 goals — 4.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. New York City FC's 5 produced 13, at 2.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 4.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
New York City FC: DWWLL
Philadelphia Union: WWLDL
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 1.00Avg goals
- 0%Both scored
- 0%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-04 | Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-12 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours New York City FC (41% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 22:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 1.00 goals per game.