New York City FCvs
Philadelphia UnionNew York City FC 2-3 Philadelphia Union — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSun, 16 Aug 2026 22:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs New York City FC43%
- New York City FC 43%
- Draw 25%
- Philadelphia Union 32%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick New York City FC, rating it at 42.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and New York City FC won 1 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 42.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026.
New York City FC: LLLLW
Philadelphia Union: DWLWL
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026.
- 3Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 2–3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-12 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours New York City FC (43% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 22:00 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.