Philadelphia Unionvs
New York City FCPhiladelphia Union 1-0 New York City FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sat, 04 Oct 2025 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union51%
- Philadelphia Union 51%
- Draw 26%
- New York City FC 23%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Philadelphia Union, rating it at 51.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Philadelphia Union won 2 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 51.2% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Philadelphia Union: WWWDD
New York City FC: LDDDL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 2–3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-12 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC kick off?
- Sat, 04 Oct 2025 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.