Philadelphia Unionvs
New York City FCPhiladelphia Union 1-0 New York City FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sat, 04 Oct 2025 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union51%
- Philadelphia Union
- Draw
- New York City FC
Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Philadelphia Union, rating it at 51.2% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Philadelphia Union won 2 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 25 goals — 5.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. New York City FC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 3 Oct 2026.
Philadelphia Union: WWWWW
New York City FC: DLWLD
Head-to-head
As of 3 Oct 2026.
- 3Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 2–3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-12 | New York City FC vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC kick off?
- Sat, 04 Oct 2025 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Philadelphia Union vs New York City FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.