New York City FCvs
Toronto FCNew York City FC 1-1 Toronto FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerFri, 31 Jul 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs New York City FC56%
- New York City FC 56%
- Draw 25%
- Toronto FC 19%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick New York City FC, rating it at 55.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and New York City FC won 2 of 4, with 2 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 55.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Toronto FC's last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. New York City FC's 5 produced 10, at 2.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Toronto FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
New York City FC: LDDDL
Toronto FC: WDDWD
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.25Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Toronto FC vs New York City FC | 1–1 |
| 2026-07-31 | New York City FC vs Toronto FC | 1–1 |
| 2025-07-03 | New York City FC vs Toronto FC | 3–1 |
| 2025-04-26 | Toronto FC vs New York City FC | 0–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win New York City FC vs Toronto FC?
- Tofiko's model favours New York City FC (56% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does New York City FC vs Toronto FC kick off?
- Fri, 31 Jul 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York City FC vs Toronto FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.25 goals per game.