New York Red Bullsvs
Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSat, 29 Aug 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union38%
- New York Red Bulls 37%
- Draw 25%
- Philadelphia Union 38%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Philadelphia Union, rating it at 37.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and New York Red Bulls won 1 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 37.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 24 goals — 4.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. New York Red Bulls's 5 produced 16, at 3.2 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Philadelphia Union's games are very high-scoring at 4.8 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
New York Red Bulls: LLWDW
Philadelphia Union: WWLDL
Head-to-head
- 3Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 33%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 3–1 |
| 2025-08-16 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (38% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sat, 29 Aug 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 3 home wins, 0 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.