New York Red Bullsvs
Philadelphia UnionNew York Red Bulls 1-3 Philadelphia Union — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSat, 29 Aug 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union39%
- New York Red Bulls 37%
- Draw 24%
- Philadelphia Union 39%
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Create a free accountModel families: split (goals models vs Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Philadelphia Union, rating it at 38.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and New York Red Bulls won 1 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 38.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 17 goals — 3.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. New York Red Bulls's 5 produced 9, at 1.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
New York Red Bulls: LDLDL
Philadelphia Union: WWWDD
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.75Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | 1–3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 3–1 |
| 2025-08-16 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (39% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union kick off?
- Sat, 29 Aug 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 3 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.75 goals per game.