Philadelphia Unionvs
New York Red BullsPhiladelphia Union 3-1 New York Red Bulls — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerWed, 22 Jul 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Philadelphia Union54%
- Philadelphia Union 54%
- Draw 23%
- New York Red Bulls 23%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Philadelphia Union, rating it at 54.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Philadelphia Union won 3 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 54.0% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Philadelphia Union's last 5 produced 17 goals — 3.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. New York Red Bulls's 5 produced 9, at 1.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Philadelphia Union: WWWDD
New York Red Bulls: LDLDL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.75Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | 1–3 |
| 2026-07-22 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 3–1 |
| 2025-08-16 | New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union | 1–0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls?
- Tofiko's model favours Philadelphia Union (54% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls kick off?
- Wed, 22 Jul 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Philadelphia Union vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 3 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.75 goals per game.