Orlando Cityvs
Chicago FireOrlando City vs Chicago Fire Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerWed, 19 Aug 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Orlando City46%
- Orlando City 46%
- Draw 20%
- Chicago Fire 34%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Orlando City, rating it at 45.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Orlando City won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 20.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 2 games, no win for the side we back.
- Orlando City's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Orlando City: WWLWD
Chicago Fire: LLWWW
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-31 | Orlando City vs Chicago Fire | 1–3 |
| 2025-05-04 | Chicago Fire vs Orlando City | 0–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Orlando City vs Chicago Fire?
- Tofiko's model favours Orlando City (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Orlando City vs Chicago Fire kick off?
- Wed, 19 Aug 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Orlando City vs Chicago Fire head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.