Orlando Cityvs
FC CincinnatiOrlando City vs FC Cincinnati Prediction, H2H & Stats
Major League SoccerSat, 15 Aug 2026 23:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Orlando City41%
- Orlando City 41%
- Draw 22%
- FC Cincinnati 38%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Orlando City, rating it at 40.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Orlando City won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 40.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. FC Cincinnati's last 5 produced 28 goals — 5.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Orlando City's 5 produced 20, at 4.0 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- FC Cincinnati's games are very high-scoring at 5.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Orlando City: WWLWD
FC Cincinnati: LWWWD
Head-to-head
- 3Games
- 4.33Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City | 6–2 |
| 2025-09-28 | FC Cincinnati vs Orlando City | 1–1 |
| 2025-06-28 | Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati | 1–2 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati?
- Tofiko's model favours Orlando City (41% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati kick off?
- Sat, 15 Aug 2026 23:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the Orlando City vs FC Cincinnati head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.33 goals per game.