San Jose Earthquakesvs
Minnesota United FCSan Jose Earthquakes 1-5 Minnesota United FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSun, 23 Aug 2026 02:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs San Jose Earthquakes39%
- San Jose Earthquakes 39%
- Draw 23%
- Minnesota United FC 38%
The de-vigged market number is a PRO feature — free to start, PRO unlocks it.
Create a free accountModel families: split (goals models vs Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks San Jose Earthquakes, rating it at 39.0%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 39.0% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Minnesota United FC's last 5 produced 27 goals — 5.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. San Jose Earthquakes's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Minnesota United FC's games are very high-scoring at 5.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
San Jose Earthquakes: WDDLL
Minnesota United FC: LLDWL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.50Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC | 1–5 |
| 2026-04-29 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC | 4–2 |
| 2025-07-13 | Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 4–1 |
| 2025-03-09 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC?
- Tofiko's model favours San Jose Earthquakes (39% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC kick off?
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 02:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 4.50 goals per game.