San Jose Earthquakesvs
Saint Louis CitySan Jose Earthquakes 1-3 Saint Louis City — Result, H2H & Form
Major League SoccerSun, 16 Aug 2026 02:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs San Jose Earthquakes43%
- San Jose Earthquakes 43%
- Draw 23%
- Saint Louis City 35%
The de-vigged market number is a PRO feature — free to start, PRO unlocks it.
Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick San Jose Earthquakes, rating it at 42.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of 4. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 42.5% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 23 Aug 2026.
San Jose Earthquakes: LLLDL
Saint Louis City: DWDWW
Head-to-head
As of 23 Aug 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Saint Louis City | 1–3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Saint Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes | 2–3 |
| 2025-09-21 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Saint Louis City | 1–3 |
| 2025-05-31 | Saint Louis City vs San Jose Earthquakes | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Saint Louis City?
- Tofiko's model favours San Jose Earthquakes (43% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs Saint Louis City kick off?
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 02:30 GMT — Major League Soccer.
- What is the San Jose Earthquakes vs Saint Louis City head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.