Burnley F.C.vs
Manchester City F.C.Burnley F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueWed, 22 Apr 2026 19:00 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Burnley F.C. 0–1 Manchester City F.C.
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Manchester City F.C.74%
- Burnley F.C. 9%
- Draw 17%
- Manchester City F.C. 74%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Manchester City F.C., rating it at 73.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and Burnley F.C. won none of them. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 17.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Burnley F.C.: DLLDL
Manchester City F.C.: DLDWW
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 3.13Avg goals
- 25%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Burnley F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. | 0–1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Manchester City F.C. vs Burnley F.C. | 5–1 |
| 2024-01-31 | Manchester City vs Burnley | 3–1 |
| 2023-08-11 | Burnley vs Manchester City | 0–3 |
| 2022-04-02 | Burnley vs Manchester City | 0–2 |
| 2021-10-16 | Manchester City vs Burnley | 2–0 |
| 2021-02-03 | Burnley vs Manchester City | 0–2 |
| 2020-11-28 | Manchester City vs Burnley | 5–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Burnley F.C. vs Manchester City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Manchester City F.C. (74% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Burnley F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. kick off?
- Wed, 22 Apr 2026 19:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Burnley F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 0 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.13 goals per game.