Chelsea F.C.vs
Leeds United F.C.Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 21 Nov 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chelsea F.C.61%
- Chelsea F.C. 61%
- Draw 23%
- Leeds United F.C. 16%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Chelsea F.C., rating it at 61.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 9 times, and Chelsea F.C. won none of them. Across 9 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Chelsea F.C.'s last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. Leeds United F.C.'s 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 22.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Chelsea F.C.'s games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Chelsea F.C.: LWLWL
Leeds United F.C.: WLLWD
Head-to-head
- 9Games
- 2.78Avg goals
- 44%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Chelsea F.C.(N) vs Leeds United F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2026-02-10 | Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. | 2–2 |
| 2025-12-03 | Leeds United F.C. vs Chelsea F.C. | 3–1 |
| 2023-03-04 | Chelsea FC vs Leeds United | 1–0 |
| 2022-08-21 | Leeds United vs Chelsea FC | 3–0 |
| 2022-05-11 | Leeds United vs Chelsea FC | 0–3 |
| 2021-12-11 | Chelsea FC vs Leeds United | 3–2 |
| 2021-03-13 | Leeds United vs Chelsea FC | 0–0 |
| 2020-12-05 | Chelsea FC vs Leeds United | 3–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Chelsea F.C. (61% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 21 Nov 2026 15:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Chelsea F.C. vs Leeds United F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 9 meetings: 6 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.78 goals per game.