Manchester United F.C.vs
Manchester City F.C.Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
English Premier LeagueSat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Manchester City F.C.50%
- Manchester United F.C. 25%
- Draw 25%
- Manchester City F.C. 50%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Manchester City F.C., rating it at 50.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Manchester United F.C. won 2 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 24.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Manchester United F.C.: WWLWW
Manchester City F.C.: WDLDW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.40Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Manchester City F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. | 3–0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. | 0–0 |
| 2024-12-15 | Manchester City F.C. vs Manchester United F.C. | 1–2 |
| 2024-03-03 | Manchester City vs Manchester United | 3–1 |
| 2023-10-29 | Manchester United vs Manchester City | 0–3 |
| 2023-01-14 | Manchester United vs Manchester City | 2–1 |
| 2022-10-02 | Manchester City vs Manchester United | 6–3 |
| 2022-03-06 | Manchester City vs Manchester United | 4–1 |
| 2021-11-06 | Manchester United vs Manchester City | 0–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Manchester City F.C. (50% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 12 Sep 2026 14:00 GMT — English Premier League.
- What is the Manchester United F.C. vs Manchester City F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.40 goals per game.