FC Aroucavs
SL BenficaFC Arouca vs SL Benfica Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 10 Jan 2027 16:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs SL Benfica72%
- FC Arouca 8%
- Draw 20%
- SL Benfica 72%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick SL Benfica, rating it at 72.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and FC Arouca won none of them. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. SL Benfica's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. FC Arouca's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 20.0%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- SL Benfica's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
SL Benfica: WWWLW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.30Avg goals
- 20%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | FC Arouca vs SL Benfica | 1–2 |
| 2025-10-25 | SL Benfica vs FC Arouca | 5–0 |
| 2025-04-13 | SL Benfica vs FC Arouca | 2–2 |
| 2024-12-01 | FC Arouca vs SL Benfica | 0–2 |
| 2024-05-12 | SL Benfica vs FC Arouca | 5–0 |
| 2024-01-06 | FC Arouca vs SL Benfica | 0–3 |
| 2023-01-31 | FC Arouca vs SL Benfica | 0–3 |
| 2022-08-05 | SL Benfica vs FC Arouca | 4–0 |
| 2022-01-21 | FC Arouca vs SL Benfica | 0–2 |
| 2021-08-14 | SL Benfica vs FC Arouca | 2–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs SL Benfica?
- Tofiko's model favours SL Benfica (72% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs SL Benfica kick off?
- Sun, 10 Jan 2027 16:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs SL Benfica head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 5 away wins, averaging 3.30 goals per game.