FC Aroucavs
Estrela AmadoraFC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Arouca62%
- FC Arouca 62%
- Draw 24%
- Estrela Amadora 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 61.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and FC Arouca won 3 of 6, with 1 drawn. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
Estrela Amadora: WWDWL
Head-to-head
- 6Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 1–0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 3–1 |
| 2025-04-19 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 1–0 |
| 2024-12-09 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 2–1 |
| 2024-05-05 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 0–0 |
| 2023-12-28 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 1–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (62% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 15:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.