FC Aroucavs
Estrela AmadoraFC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, H2H & Form
Primeira LigaSun, 11 Oct 2026 19:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Our pick
FC Arouca to win53%
1X2: model backs FC Arouca at 53%.
- FC Arouca
- Draw
- Estrela Amadora
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Free. Saves this pick to My Picks, settles it when the match ends, and can email you an hour before kick-off and with the result — if you say yes.
AI match brief
🤖 AIThe model sees an open game, with the home side at 53.1% and the market at 46.3%, while the draw is 23.9% in the model and 26.8% in the market.
The rest of the brief — key angles, context and exact-score probabilities — is Pro. Read the full brief with Pro →
More markets
Model probabilities for Double Chance and Over/Under 2.5; both-teams-to-score from the record and the bookmakers' price. Free, no account.
Double Chance
- FC Arouca or draw77%
- Draw or Estrela Amadora47%
- FC Arouca or Estrela Amadora76%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
- Over 2.548%
- Under 2.552%
Both teams to score
- FC Arouca, last 10 home games7 of 10
- Estrela Amadora, last 10 away games6 of 10
- League rate, last 12 months (302 games)50%
- Bookmakers, margin removed (7 books)Yes 56% · No 44%
Our own BTTS number is not shown yet: it has not passed our accuracy check.
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 53.1% — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and FC Arouca won 3 of 6, with 1 drawn. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast doesn't lean on it.
They arrive from very different football. Estrela Amadora's last 5 produced 20 goals — 4.0 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. FC Arouca's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
What to keep in mind
- Our number and the market's own, side by side. Where they differ most, our record has been worst, so a difference is not a tip.
- Estrela Amadora's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
Recent form
As of 11 Oct 2026.
FC Arouca: DLDWL
Estrela Amadora: LDWDW
Head-to-head
As of 11 Oct 2026.
- 6Games
- 2.33Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 1–0 |
| 2025-12-07 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 3–1 |
| 2025-04-19 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 1–0 |
| 2024-12-09 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 2–1 |
| 2024-05-05 | FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora | 0–0 |
| 2023-12-28 | Estrela Amadora vs FC Arouca | 1–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (53% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora kick off?
- Sun, 11 Oct 2026 19:30 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs Estrela Amadora head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.33 goals per game.