FC Aroucavs
MoreirenseFC Arouca vs Moreirense Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 16 Aug 2026 17:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Arouca51%
- FC Arouca 51%
- Draw 27%
- Moreirense 22%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 50.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 8 times, and FC Arouca won 2 of 8, with 1 drawn. Across 8 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Moreirense's last 5 produced 16 goals — 3.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 4. FC Arouca's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
Moreirense: LWDLD
Head-to-head
- 8Games
- 1.88Avg goals
- 38%Both scored
- 25%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | Moreirense vs FC Arouca | 0–1 |
| 2025-11-02 | FC Arouca vs Moreirense | 0–2 |
| 2025-01-24 | FC Arouca vs Moreirense | 1–0 |
| 2024-08-18 | Moreirense vs FC Arouca | 3–1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Moreirense vs FC Arouca | 1–0 |
| 2023-10-27 | FC Arouca vs Moreirense | 0–1 |
| 2022-02-26 | FC Arouca vs Moreirense | 1–1 |
| 2021-09-25 | Moreirense vs FC Arouca | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs Moreirense?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (51% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs Moreirense kick off?
- Sun, 16 Aug 2026 17:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs Moreirense head-to-head record?
- In their last 8 meetings: 4 home wins, 1 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 1.88 goals per game.