FC Aroucavs
C.D. TondelaFC Arouca vs C.D. Tondela Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSat, 16 May 2026 17:00 GMTStatus: finished
Final: FC Arouca 3–1 C.D. Tondela
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Arouca63%
- FC Arouca 63%
- Draw 23%
- C.D. Tondela 14%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Arouca, rating it at 63.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC Arouca won 2 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 63.2% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 22.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Arouca: WLDDL
C.D. Tondela: LDLLW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 3.50Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | FC Arouca vs C.D. Tondela | 3–1 |
| 2026-01-03 | C.D. Tondela vs FC Arouca | 3–1 |
| 2022-03-19 | Desportivo de Tondela vs FC Arouca | 2–2 |
| 2021-10-29 | FC Arouca vs Desportivo de Tondela | 2–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC Arouca vs C.D. Tondela?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Arouca (63% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Arouca vs C.D. Tondela kick off?
- Sat, 16 May 2026 17:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Arouca vs C.D. Tondela head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.50 goals per game.