FC Portovs
FC AroucaFC Porto vs FC Arouca Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 23 Aug 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs FC Porto78%
- FC Porto 78%
- Draw 17%
- FC Arouca 5%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick FC Porto, rating it at 77.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and FC Porto won 8 of 10, with 1 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 17.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC Porto: WWLWW
FC Arouca: WLDDL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.30Avg goals
- 40%Both scored
- 60%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-27 | FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 3–1 |
| 2025-09-29 | FC Arouca vs FC Porto | 0–4 |
| 2025-03-01 | FC Arouca vs FC Porto | 0–2 |
| 2024-09-29 | FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 4–0 |
| 2024-02-12 | FC Arouca vs FC Porto | 3–2 |
| 2023-09-03 | FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 1–1 |
| 2023-05-08 | FC Arouca vs FC Porto | 0–1 |
| 2022-12-28 | FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 5–1 |
| 2022-02-06 | FC Arouca vs FC Porto | 0–2 |
| 2021-08-28 | FC Porto vs FC Arouca | 3–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win FC Porto vs FC Arouca?
- Tofiko's model favours FC Porto (78% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC Porto vs FC Arouca kick off?
- Sun, 23 Aug 2026 15:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the FC Porto vs FC Arouca head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 1 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.30 goals per game.