Vitoria Guimaraesvs
MoreirenseVitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Vitoria Guimaraes57%
- Vitoria Guimaraes 57%
- Draw 26%
- Moreirense 18%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Vitoria Guimaraes, rating it at 56.9%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Vitoria Guimaraes won 6 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 25.6%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Vitoria Guimaraes: WDWWW
Moreirense: LWDLD
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 30%Both scored
- 30%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-30 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense | 1–0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 2–0 |
| 2025-03-30 | Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 2–2 |
| 2024-11-03 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense | 1–0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense | 1–0 |
| 2023-11-05 | Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 1–0 |
| 2022-04-03 | Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 0–1 |
| 2021-11-06 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense | 2–1 |
| 2021-04-30 | Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense | 2–0 |
| 2021-01-09 | Moreirense vs Vitoria Guimaraes | 2–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
- Tofiko's model favours Vitoria Guimaraes (57% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense kick off?
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the Vitoria Guimaraes vs Moreirense head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 7 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.