Rio Ave F.C.vs
Estrela AmadoraRio Ave F.C. vs Estrela Amadora Prediction, H2H & Form
Primeira LigaMon, 14 Sep 2026 17:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Rio Ave F.C.47%
- Rio Ave F.C. 47%
- Draw 26%
- Estrela Amadora 27%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Rio Ave F.C., rating it at 47.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 6 times, and Rio Ave F.C. won 2 of 6, with 2 drawn. Across 6 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Estrela Amadora's last 5 produced 23 goals — 4.6 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. Rio Ave F.C.'s 5 produced 13, at 2.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 25.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Estrela Amadora's games are very high-scoring at 4.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 9 Sep 2026.
Rio Ave F.C.: LLWLL
Estrela Amadora: DWDDW
Head-to-head
As of 9 Sep 2026.
- 6Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-15 | Rio Ave F.C. vs Estrela Amadora | 2–1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Estrela Amadora vs Rio Ave F.C. | 1–2 |
| 2025-05-05 | Rio Ave FC(N) vs Estrela Amadora | 2–0 |
| 2024-12-23 | Estrela Amadora vs Rio Ave FC | 1–0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Estrela Amadora vs Rio Ave | 2–2 |
| 2023-12-02 | Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora | 1–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Rio Ave F.C. vs Estrela Amadora?
- Tofiko's model favours Rio Ave F.C. (47% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Rio Ave F.C. vs Estrela Amadora kick off?
- Mon, 14 Sep 2026 17:45 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the Rio Ave F.C. vs Estrela Amadora head-to-head record?
- In their last 6 meetings: 3 home wins, 2 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.