Sporting CPvs
FC AroucaSporting CP vs FC Arouca Prediction, H2H & Stats
Primeira LigaSun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Sporting CP79%
- Sporting CP 79%
- Draw 16%
- FC Arouca 5%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Sporting CP, rating it at 78.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Sporting CP won 2 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Sporting CP's last 5 produced 21 goals — 4.2 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 3. FC Arouca's 5 produced 8, at 1.6 per game.
The model puts the draw at 16.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Sporting CP's games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Sporting CP: WWWWD
FC Arouca: WLDDL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | FC Arouca vs Sporting CP | 1–2 |
| 2025-08-17 | Sporting CP vs FC Arouca | 6–0 |
| 2025-02-15 | Sporting Clube de Portugal vs FC Arouca | 2–2 |
| 2024-09-13 | FC Arouca vs Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0–3 |
| 2024-03-10 | FC Arouca vs Sporting Clube de Portugal | 0–3 |
| 2023-10-08 | Sporting Clube de Portugal vs FC Arouca | 2–1 |
| 2023-04-16 | Sporting Clube de Portugal vs FC Arouca | 1–1 |
| 2022-10-29 | FC Arouca vs Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1–0 |
| 2022-03-05 | Sporting Clube de Portugal vs FC Arouca | 2–0 |
| 2021-10-02 | FC Arouca vs Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1–2 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Sporting CP vs FC Arouca?
- Tofiko's model favours Sporting CP (79% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Sporting CP vs FC Arouca kick off?
- Sun, 20 Sep 2026 15:00 GMT — Primeira Liga.
- What is the Sporting CP vs FC Arouca head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.