Kilmarnock FCvs
Heart of Midlothian F.C.Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
Scottish PremiershipSat, 19 Sep 2026 16:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Heart of Midlothian F.C.48%
- Kilmarnock FC 28%
- Draw 24%
- Heart of Midlothian F.C. 48%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Heart of Midlothian F.C., rating it at 47.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Kilmarnock FC won 3 of 10, with 4 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 24.1%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Kilmarnock FC's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 18 days away, so these are today's results, not the form either side will carry into this match.
Kilmarnock FC: LWLLD
Heart of Midlothian F.C.: WDDWD
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026. Kickoff is still 18 days away, so these are the meetings played so far, and the two may meet again before it.
- 10Games
- 1.80Avg goals
- 40%Both scored
- 30%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-14 | Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2025-12-03 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs Kilmarnock FC | 1–1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 0–3 |
| 2025-01-25 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs Kilmarnock FC | 3–2 |
| 2024-12-15 | Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2024-10-30 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs Kilmarnock FC | 1–2 |
| 2024-04-27 | Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian FC | 0–0 |
| 2024-03-30 | Heart of Midlothian FC vs Kilmarnock | 1–1 |
| 2023-12-02 | Kilmarnock vs Heart of Midlothian FC | 0–1 |
| 2023-08-13 | Heart of Midlothian FC vs Kilmarnock | 0–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Heart of Midlothian F.C. (48% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 19 Sep 2026 16:45 GMT — Scottish Premiership.
- What is the Kilmarnock FC vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 3 home wins, 4 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 1.80 goals per game.