Heart of Midlothian F.C.vs
St Mirren F.C.Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St Mirren F.C. Prediction, H2H & Stats
Scottish PremiershipSat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Heart of Midlothian F.C.64%
- Heart of Midlothian F.C. 64%
- Draw 22%
- St Mirren F.C. 14%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Heart of Midlothian F.C., rating it at 63.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 9 times, and Heart of Midlothian F.C. won 3 of 9, with 1 drawn. Across 9 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 22.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Heart of Midlothian F.C.: LLWLW
St Mirren F.C.: WLWWW
Head-to-head
- 9Games
- 2.67Avg goals
- 44%Both scored
- 56%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-03 | St Mirren F.C. vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 1–0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St Mirren F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-10-29 | St Mirren F.C. vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 2–2 |
| 2025-02-26 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St. Mirren | 3–1 |
| 2024-10-19 | Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St. Mirren | 4–0 |
| 2024-09-21 | St. Mirren vs Heart of Midlothian F.C. | 2–1 |
| 2024-05-15 | St. Mirren vs Heart of Midlothian FC | — |
| 2024-04-06 | St. Mirren vs Heart of Midlothian FC | 1–2 |
| 2023-12-23 | Heart of Midlothian FC vs St. Mirren | 2–0 |
| 2023-09-23 | St. Mirren vs Heart of Midlothian FC | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St Mirren F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Heart of Midlothian F.C. (64% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St Mirren F.C. kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — Scottish Premiership.
- What is the Heart of Midlothian F.C. vs St Mirren F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 9 meetings: 7 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.67 goals per game.