Kilmarnock FCvs
Motherwell FCKilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC Prediction, H2H & Stats
Scottish PremiershipSat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Kilmarnock FC38%
- Kilmarnock FC 38%
- Draw 24%
- Motherwell FC 37%
Model families: split (goals models vs Elo)
Analysis
Our model families split, but the ensemble picks Kilmarnock FC, rating it at 38.5%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Kilmarnock FC won 1 of 10, with 5 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Motherwell FC's last 5 produced 17 goals — 3.4 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 2. Kilmarnock FC's 5 produced 7, at 1.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Kilmarnock FC: DWWDW
Motherwell FC: WWLLW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.40Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Motherwell FC vs Kilmarnock FC | 4–0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC | 1–3 |
| 2025-08-30 | Motherwell FC vs Kilmarnock FC | 2–2 |
| 2025-04-05 | Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC | 2–0 |
| 2025-01-08 | Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC | 0–0 |
| 2024-12-20 | Motherwell FC vs Kilmarnock FC | 1–1 |
| 2024-02-03 | Motherwell FC vs Kilmarnock | 1–1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Kilmarnock vs Motherwell FC | 1–0 |
| 2023-08-26 | Motherwell FC vs Kilmarnock | 2–1 |
| 2023-02-25 | Kilmarnock vs Motherwell FC | 1–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC?
- Tofiko's model favours Kilmarnock FC (38% probability), though our model families split on this one.
- What time does Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC kick off?
- Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:00 GMT — Scottish Premiership.
- What is the Kilmarnock FC vs Motherwell FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 5 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.40 goals per game.