Motherwell FCvs
Aberdeen F.C.Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. Prediction, H2H & Form
Scottish PremiershipTue, 15 Sep 2026 18:45 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Motherwell FC53%
- Motherwell FC 53%
- Draw 24%
- Aberdeen F.C. 23%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Motherwell FC, rating it at 52.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Motherwell FC won 3 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. Motherwell FC's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Aberdeen F.C.'s 5 produced 9, at 1.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 24.5%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 15 Sep 2026.
Motherwell FC: LWDLL
Aberdeen F.C.: DDLLW
Head-to-head
As of 15 Sep 2026.
- 10Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-15 | Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Aberdeen F.C. vs Motherwell FC | 1–1 |
| 2025-09-27 | Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2025-03-29 | Aberdeen F.C. vs Motherwell FC | 4–1 |
| 2025-01-05 | Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. | 2–0 |
| 2024-09-14 | Aberdeen F.C. vs Motherwell FC | 2–1 |
| 2024-04-27 | Aberdeen vs Motherwell FC | 1–0 |
| 2024-03-16 | Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen | 0–1 |
| 2024-02-14 | Aberdeen vs Motherwell FC | 3–3 |
| 2023-11-01 | Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen | 2–4 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C.?
- Tofiko's model favours Motherwell FC (53% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. kick off?
- Tue, 15 Sep 2026 18:45 GMT — Scottish Premiership.
- What is the Motherwell FC vs Aberdeen F.C. head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 6 home wins, 2 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.