Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
FC St. PauliBayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli Prediction, H2H & Stats
German Bundesliga 2025-2026Sat, 14 Feb 2026 14:30 GMTStatus: finished
Final: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4–0 FC St. Pauli
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen69%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 69%
- Draw 21%
- FC St. Pauli 11%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen, rating it at 68.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 3 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 68.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 20.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- FC St. Pauli's games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
FC St. Pauli: DLWWW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 3.00Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli | 4–0 |
| 2025-09-27 | FC St. Pauli vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1–2 |
| 2025-04-20 | FC St. Pauli vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1–1 |
| 2024-12-07 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (69% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
- Sat, 14 Feb 2026 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2025-2026.
- What is the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs FC St. Pauli head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.00 goals per game.