Bayer 04 Leverkusenvs
1. FC Union BerlinBayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen65%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 65%
- Draw 23%
- 1. FC Union Berlin 12%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen, rating it at 64.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 2 of 10, with 4 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
The model puts the draw at 23.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
1. FC Union Berlin: DLLDL
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 2.20Avg goals
- 30%Both scored
- 40%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1–0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–0 |
| 2025-04-12 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin | 0–0 |
| 2024-11-30 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1–2 |
| 2024-04-06 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–1 |
| 2023-11-12 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin | 4–0 |
| 2023-04-29 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–0 |
| 2022-11-06 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin | 5–0 |
| 2022-01-08 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin | 2–2 |
| 2021-08-14 | 1. FC Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | 1–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (65% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin kick off?
- Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1. FC Union Berlin head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 4 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.20 goals per game.