Borussia Dortmundvs
FC St. PauliBorussia Dortmund 3-2 FC St. Pauli — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2025-2026Sat, 17 Jan 2026 14:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Borussia Dortmund70%
- Borussia Dortmund 70%
- Draw 20%
- FC St. Pauli 10%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Borussia Dortmund, rating it at 70.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Borussia Dortmund won 3 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 70.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 19.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 1 Sep 2026.
Borussia Dortmund: WLDDW
FC St. Pauli: LLDDD
Head-to-head
As of 1 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 4.00Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli | 3–2 |
| 2025-08-23 | FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund | 3–3 |
| 2025-03-01 | FC St. Pauli vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2024-10-18 | Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli | 2–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli?
- Tofiko's model favours Borussia Dortmund (70% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
- Sat, 17 Jan 2026 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2025-2026.
- What is the Borussia Dortmund vs FC St. Pauli head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.00 goals per game.