Borussia Dortmundvs
1.FSV Mainz 05Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 09 Jan 2027 14:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Borussia Dortmund66%
- Borussia Dortmund 66%
- Draw 21%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 12%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Borussia Dortmund, rating it at 66.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and Borussia Dortmund won 6 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
They arrive from very different football. 1.FSV Mainz 05's last 5 produced 25 goals — 5.0 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 2. Borussia Dortmund's 5 produced 12, at 2.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Borussia Dortmund: WDLWW
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWW
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.10Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-13 | Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 4–0 |
| 2025-09-27 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–2 |
| 2025-03-30 | Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3–1 |
| 2024-11-09 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | 3–1 |
| 2024-05-11 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | 3–0 |
| 2023-12-19 | Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–1 |
| 2023-05-27 | Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2–2 |
| 2023-01-25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | 1–2 |
| 2022-03-16 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund | 0–1 |
| 2021-10-16 | Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 3–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours Borussia Dortmund (66% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sat, 09 Jan 2027 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Borussia Dortmund vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 5 home wins, 2 draws, 3 away wins, averaging 3.10 goals per game.