FC St. Paulivs
1.FSV Mainz 05FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSun, 03 May 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: finished
Final: FC St. Pauli 1–2 1.FSV Mainz 05
Tofiko prediction
Model backs 1.FSV Mainz 0541%
- FC St. Pauli 31%
- Draw 28%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 41%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 41.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and FC St. Pauli won none of them. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 41.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
FC St. Pauli: DLWWW
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWW
Head-to-head
- 4Games
- 2.00Avg goals
- 25%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–2 |
| 2025-12-21 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli | 0–0 |
| 2025-02-22 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs FC St. Pauli | 2–0 |
| 2024-10-05 | FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (41% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sun, 03 May 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the FC St. Pauli vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 2.00 goals per game.