1.FSV Mainz 05vs
Bayer 04 Leverkusen1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 10 Oct 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen48%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 25%
- Draw 27%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 48%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen, rating it at 48.1%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 10 times, and 1.FSV Mainz 05 won 2 of 10, with 2 drawn. Across 10 meetings the pattern is worth noting, though the forecast is built on league-wide form rather than this pairing alone.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 5.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWW
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
Head-to-head
- 10Games
- 3.40Avg goals
- 60%Both scored
- 70%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–1 |
| 2025-10-18 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 3–4 |
| 2025-05-17 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 2–2 |
| 2025-01-14 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–0 |
| 2024-02-23 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2–1 |
| 2023-09-30 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–3 |
| 2023-02-19 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 2–3 |
| 2022-08-27 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen | 0–3 |
| 2022-02-18 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen | 3–2 |
| 2021-09-25 | Bayer Leverkusen vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 1–0 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (48% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen kick off?
- Sat, 10 Oct 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen head-to-head record?
- In their last 10 meetings: 4 home wins, 2 draws, 4 away wins, averaging 3.40 goals per game.