1.FSV Mainz 05vs
Holstein Kiel1.FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Holstein Kiel — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2024-2025Sat, 05 Apr 2025 13:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs 1.FSV Mainz 0560%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 60%
- Draw 20%
- Holstein Kiel 19%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick 1.FSV Mainz 05, rating it at 60.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and 1.FSV Mainz 05 won 2 of 3, with 1 drawn. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 60.2% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 20.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
1.FSV Mainz 05: DWWWD
Holstein Kiel: LWDDL
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 2.67Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel | 3–0 |
| 2025-04-05 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel | 1–1 |
| 2024-11-24 | Holstein Kiel vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–3 |
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FAQ
- Who will win 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel?
- Tofiko's model favours 1.FSV Mainz 05 (60% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel kick off?
- Sat, 05 Apr 2025 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2024-2025.
- What is the 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Holstein Kiel head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.67 goals per game.