Hamburger SVvs
Bayer 04 LeverkusenHamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction, H2H & Stats
German BundesligaSat, 09 Jan 2027 14:30 GMTStatus: scheduled
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Bayer 04 Leverkusen55%
- Hamburger SV 20%
- Draw 25%
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen 55%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
Analysis
Both model families pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen, rating it at 54.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 2 times, and Hamburger SV won none of them. 2 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 54.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Bayer 04 Leverkusen's games are very high-scoring at 4.0 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
Hamburger SV: LWLDW
Bayer 04 Leverkusen: WWWWD
Head-to-head
- 2Games
- 1.50Avg goals
- 50%Both scored
- 0%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Hamburger SV | 1–1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 0–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
- Tofiko's model favours Bayer 04 Leverkusen (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen kick off?
- Sat, 09 Jan 2027 14:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Hamburger SV vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen head-to-head record?
- In their last 2 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 1.50 goals per game.