Hamburger SVvs
1.FSV Mainz 05Hamburger SV 0-5 1.FSV Mainz 05 — Result, H2H & Form
German BundesligaSun, 06 Sep 2026 13:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Hamburger SV39%
- Hamburger SV 39%
- Draw 25%
- 1.FSV Mainz 05 35%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Hamburger SV, rating it at 39.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Hamburger SV won 1 of 3, with 1 drawn. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 39.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 25.4%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- 1.FSV Mainz 05's games are very high-scoring at 4.2 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 9 Sep 2026.
Hamburger SV: LLWWL
1.FSV Mainz 05: WDWWW
Head-to-head
As of 9 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 3.67Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Hamburger SV vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 0–5 |
| 2026-02-20 | 1.FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV | 1–1 |
| 2025-10-05 | Hamburger SV vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 | 4–0 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Hamburger SV vs 1.FSV Mainz 05?
- Tofiko's model favours Hamburger SV (39% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Hamburger SV vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
- Sun, 06 Sep 2026 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga.
- What is the Hamburger SV vs 1.FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.67 goals per game.