Holstein Kielvs
FC St. PauliHolstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. Pauli — Result, H2H & Form
German Bundesliga 2024-2025Sat, 12 Apr 2025 13:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Holstein Kiel45%
- Holstein Kiel 45%
- Draw 25%
- FC St. Pauli 31%
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Create a free accountModel families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Holstein Kiel, rating it at 44.6%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Holstein Kiel won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 44.6% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 24.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 2 Sep 2026.
Holstein Kiel: LWDDL
FC St. Pauli: LLDDD
Head-to-head
As of 2 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 3.67Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli | 2–2 |
| 2025-04-12 | Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli | 1–2 |
| 2024-11-29 | FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli?
- Tofiko's model favours Holstein Kiel (45% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli kick off?
- Sat, 12 Apr 2025 13:30 GMT — German Bundesliga 2024-2025.
- What is the Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.67 goals per game.