Chicago Firevs
New York Red BullsChicago Fire 1-0 New York Red Bulls — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 27 Jul 2025 00:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Chicago Fire52%
- Chicago Fire 52%
- Draw 22%
- New York Red Bulls 26%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Chicago Fire, rating it at 52.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and Chicago Fire won 1 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 52.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Chicago Fire's last 5 produced 19 goals — 3.8 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. New York Red Bulls's 5 produced 9, at 1.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.9%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Chicago Fire: DDDLD
New York Red Bulls: LDLDL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 2.50Avg goals
- 75%Both scored
- 50%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire | 1–1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls | 1–3 |
| 2025-07-27 | Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-05 | New York Red Bulls vs Chicago Fire | 2–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls?
- Tofiko's model favours Chicago Fire (52% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls kick off?
- Sun, 27 Jul 2025 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Chicago Fire vs New York Red Bulls head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 2 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 2.50 goals per game.