Houston Dynamovs
San Diego FCHouston Dynamo 2-4 San Diego FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 05 Oct 2025 00:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs San Diego FC49%
- Houston Dynamo 27%
- Draw 23%
- San Diego FC 49%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick San Diego FC, rating it at 49.3%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Houston Dynamo won 2 of 3. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 49.3% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. San Diego FC's last 5 produced 17 goals — 3.4 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 4. Houston Dynamo's 5 produced 7, at 1.4 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.3%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 11 Sep 2026.
Houston Dynamo: WDDLW
San Diego FC: LLWWL
Head-to-head
As of 11 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 4.67Avg goals
- 67%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-21 | Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC | 1–0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC | 2–4 |
| 2025-07-06 | San Diego FC vs Houston Dynamo | 3–4 |
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FAQ
- Who will win Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC?
- Tofiko's model favours San Diego FC (49% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC kick off?
- Sun, 05 Oct 2025 00:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Houston Dynamo vs San Diego FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 0 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 4.67 goals per game.