Portland Timbersvs
San Jose EarthquakesPortland Timbers 1-1 San Jose Earthquakes — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sat, 14 Jun 2025 02:55 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Portland Timbers44%
- Portland Timbers 44%
- Draw 24%
- San Jose Earthquakes 32%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick Portland Timbers, rating it at 44.4%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Portland Timbers won none of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 44.4% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. Portland Timbers's last 5 produced 22 goals — 4.4 per game; they scored in 5 of them and conceded in 5. San Jose Earthquakes's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 23.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- The head-to-head record doesn't support the forecast: 3 games, no win for the side we back.
- Portland Timbers's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
Portland Timbers: DWLDW
San Jose Earthquakes: WDDLL
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 3.67Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-24 | Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–3 |
| 2025-06-14 | Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 |
| 2025-05-04 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Portland Timbers | 4–1 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes?
- Tofiko's model favours Portland Timbers (44% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes kick off?
- Sat, 14 Jun 2025 02:55 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Portland Timbers vs San Jose Earthquakes head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 1 home wins, 1 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 3.67 goals per game.