Portland Timbersvs
Sporting Kansas CityPortland Timbers 1-0 Sporting Kansas City — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 11 May 2025 02:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs Portland Timbers55%
- Portland Timbers 55%
- Draw 23%
- Sporting Kansas City 22%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick Portland Timbers, rating it at 54.7%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and Portland Timbers won all of them. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 54.7% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 23.2%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Portland Timbers's games are very high-scoring at 4.4 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
Portland Timbers: DWLDW
Sporting Kansas City: LLLDL
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 4.33Avg goals
- 33%Both scored
- 67%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-10 | Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City | 6–0 |
| 2025-05-11 | Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City | 1–0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Sporting Kansas City vs Portland Timbers | 2–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Tofiko's model favours Portland Timbers (55% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City kick off?
- Sun, 11 May 2025 02:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the Portland Timbers vs Sporting Kansas City head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 2 home wins, 0 draws, 1 away wins, averaging 4.33 goals per game.