San Jose Earthquakesvs
Austin FCSan Jose Earthquakes 2-1 Austin FC — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Sun, 19 Oct 2025 01:00 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs San Jose Earthquakes49%
- San Jose Earthquakes 49%
- Draw 24%
- Austin FC 27%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✓ Model called this one correctly.
Analysis
Both model families pick San Jose Earthquakes, rating it at 49.2%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 4 times, and San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of 4, with 1 drawn. 4 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 49.2% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
The model puts the draw at 23.8%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
San Jose Earthquakes: WDDLL
Austin FC: DDWLD
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 4Games
- 3.75Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 75%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 1–1 |
| 2026-04-21 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC | 5–1 |
| 2025-10-19 | San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC | 2–1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Austin FC vs San Jose Earthquakes | 3–1 |
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FAQ
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC?
- Tofiko's model favours San Jose Earthquakes (49% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC kick off?
- Sun, 19 Oct 2025 01:00 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin FC head-to-head record?
- In their last 4 meetings: 3 home wins, 1 draws, 0 away wins, averaging 3.75 goals per game.