San Jose Earthquakesvs
FC DallasSan Jose Earthquakes 2-2 FC Dallas — Result, H2H & Form
Major League Soccer 2026Thu, 17 Jul 2025 02:30 GMTStatus: finished
Tofiko prediction
Model backs San Jose Earthquakes46%
- San Jose Earthquakes 46%
- Draw 22%
- FC Dallas 32%
Model families: agree (goals models + Elo)
✗ Model missed this one — see our track record.
Analysis
Both model families pick San Jose Earthquakes, rating it at 45.8%. That figure comes from league-wide form and scoring, not from anything specific to this fixture — a consensus worth weighing, not a certainty.
The two have met 3 times, and San Jose Earthquakes won 1 of 3, with 1 drawn. 3 games is too small a sample to build on, so it doesn't feed the forecast — the 45.8% comes from league-wide form, not from this pairing.
They arrive from very different football. FC Dallas's last 5 produced 28 goals — 5.6 per game; they scored in 4 of them and conceded in 5. San Jose Earthquakes's 5 produced 14, at 2.8 per game.
The model puts the draw at 21.7%. Our own measurements show it tends to under-rate draws, so it's worth treating that figure as a floor.
This forecast doesn't account for line-ups, injuries or suspensions. It's a statistical read of form, scoring and league strength.
What to keep in mind
- FC Dallas's games are very high-scoring at 5.6 goals — more goals means more variance and less predictability.
- Line-ups are confirmed around an hour before kick-off and aren't reflected here.
Recent form
As of 12 Sep 2026.
San Jose Earthquakes: WDDLL
FC Dallas: WWDLW
Head-to-head
As of 12 Sep 2026.
- 3Games
- 5.00Avg goals
- 100%Both scored
- 100%Over 2.5
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas | 2–3 |
| 2025-07-17 | San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas | 2–2 |
| 2025-06-26 | FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes | 2–4 |
See today's predictions across every covered league →
FAQ
- Who will win San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas?
- Tofiko's model favours San Jose Earthquakes (46% probability), with both model families in agreement.
- What time does San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas kick off?
- Thu, 17 Jul 2025 02:30 GMT — Major League Soccer 2026.
- What is the San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Dallas head-to-head record?
- In their last 3 meetings: 0 home wins, 1 draws, 2 away wins, averaging 5.00 goals per game.