Getting started with Tofiko

Tofiko is a football prediction and betting analytics site. It runs statistical models over hundreds of leagues, puts the resulting probabilities next to the live prices from the market, and then publishes how accurate those probabilities have actually been.

That last part is the unusual bit, and it is where a new user should start.

What Tofiko is — and what it isn't#

It is a place to compare a number to a price. For each fixture you get model win probabilities, the bookmakers' odds, and — depending on your plan — a value layer that turns both into edges and fair odds. Every model output is graded afterwards on calibration, Brier score and closing line value, and the scorecard is public on the Performance page.

It is not:

• A bookmaker. No bets are accepted here, no money is held, nothing is settled. You bet with a bookmaker, or you don't bet at all.
• A tipster service. Nobody hands you a slip to follow. You get probabilities and prices, and the reasoning is yours.
• A claim to beat the market. We do not sell an edge, and we do not quote a profit figure as proof of anything.

Your first hour#

1. Open All Matches. Pick a day from the date strip; each day shows its fixture count. The summary line underneath tells you how many leagues are actually in season, which explains most "why is this empty?" moments.
2. Pick a fixture and read the row. A row packs in kick-off time, both teams, five form dots per side, three odds columns with price movement, a model probability badge and the market chips. It is the densest thing on the site — reading a match row decodes it left to right.
3. Open the preview. The match page carries stats, events, form, line-ups and head-to-head. Those sections are never restricted by plan, whatever tier you're on.
4. Log a pick in My Picks. Use + Log a pick to record fixture, selection and price. The tracker is free, and it is the only way to find out whether your own judgement is any good — see tracking your bets.
5. Finish on Performance. Before trusting a percentage, look at how percentages like it have performed. The Brier duel by league group tells you where the model is competitive and where the market is comfortably ahead.

Where things live#

The left sidebar is grouped, and the groups say what they're for:

• My Picks sits pinned at the top — your bankroll, open bets and journal.
• Signals — Predictions, Confidence Picks and Today's Edge: the model's output, sorted for you.
• Matches — All Matches, Value Bets, Live, History and Match previews: the fixture list in different shapes.
• Tables — Standings.
• Tournaments — Playing now and World Cup.
• Models — Track record, Performance, Model Accuracy, Model Comparison and Strategy Analyzer: the scorecards.
• Labs — Strategy Lab, Backtest and Martingale Lab: testing ground, not advice.
• Learn — Guides and Help.

The top bar carries a team search box, a display-mode switch (Signal / Time / Movers), a timezone selector, a theme toggle and your account menu. Set the timezone first — every kick-off time on the site follows it.

Some screens are meant to be empty#

This trips people up, so it's worth stating plainly. Find value and Value Bets only list bets from leagues that clear a statistical quality gate and have been signed off by a human. Right now no league qualifies, so both are empty. That is a deliberate refusal to suggest bets we can't stand behind, not a broken page. Manual pick logging always works.

Likewise, a fixture can have full odds and no model percentage. It means the model doesn't cover that league yet, and the market chips mark the row odds-only.

What to read next#

• Reading a match row — the single most useful ten minutes on this site.
• Plans and billing — what guest, free, PRO and MAX actually unlock.
• What is value betting? — the idea the whole product is built around.
• Closing line value — why we grade on CLV rather than profit.