Double Chance & Draw No Bet Calculator

Double Chance and Draw No Bet are not separate opinions about a match. They are arithmetic on the same three 1X2 probabilities — which means a quoted price can be checked rather than trusted. Enter a 1X2 book and this derives every fair price it implies.

What the calculator derives#

From three prices it produces five, all consistent with each other by construction:

• 1X — home or draw, 12 — either team wins, X2 — draw or away. Each is simply two of the three probabilities added together.
• DNB home and DNB away — the draw removed and the stake refunded, so what remains is renormalised across the two teams.

A useful sanity check on the double chance side: the three prices cover each outcome exactly twice, so their probabilities must add to 200%. If a set of quoted Double Chance prices implies much more than that, you know where the money is going without doing any further work.

The formulas#

Both markets are one line each. With fair probabilities P(home), P(draw) and P(away):

P(1X) = P(home) + P(draw) — and the same pattern for 12 and X2.

DNB home = P(home) ÷ (P(home) + P(away))

Double Chance adds; Draw No Bet divides. That difference matters more than it looks, and the next section is about why.

Why the margin has to come off first#

You cannot start from raw 1 ÷ odds. Those figures already contain the bookmaker's fee — they sum to more than 100%, and the excess is spread across all three of them. Add two together and you have collected the fee twice, once for each outcome you combined.

Take the book 2.00 / 3.40 / 4.20. The raw implied probabilities sum to 103.22%, so there is 3.22% of margin sitting in there. Strip it with the power method — the same de-vig Tofiko uses everywhere — and the fair probabilities come out as 48.9% / 28.3% / 22.8%, summing to exactly 100%.

Now derive home-or-draw both ways:

Note the direction of the error, because it is the dangerous one. The naive method says fair is 1.26, so a quote of 1.28 looks like a clear value bet. The correct fair price is 1.29, so 1.28 is actually a price against you. A sloppy derivation does not produce random noise; it systematically flags bad bets as good ones.

Where a discrepancy shows up#

Here is the practical payoff. Bookmakers price the main 1X2 market constantly, because that is where the volume is. Derived markets get less attention: they are often generated from an earlier snapshot of the main line, or carry a fatter margin because fewer people check them.

So the workflow is: take the current 1X2 prices, derive the fair Double Chance and DNB numbers here, and compare them against what is actually quoted. A quote a long way short of your derived fair price while the main line is competitive tells you the derived market is where the extra fee has been parked. Occasionally the gap runs the other way, and a stale derived price is still reflecting a line that has since moved.

That is a genuine reason to look at these markets, and it is a much better one than the usual pitch. Which brings us to the honest caveat.

What derived markets do not do#

They do not make a bet safer in any way that the price is not already charging you for. Covering two outcomes wins more often, and the odds shorten by exactly enough to pay for it — that is the entire trade, described in full in the double chance guide. A 1X bet is not a cautious version of a home win; it is a different bet at a different price with the same fee attached.

Nor is Draw No Bet a discount. It is precisely an Asian handicap of 0, settled the same way and priced the same way — the draw-no-bet guide covers when the packaging is worth preferring.

The calculator gives you fair prices with no margin, which no bookmaker will offer. Every real quote will be shorter, and the difference is the fee. To go the other way and turn any probability into a comparable price, use the fair odds calculator.