CalculatorsUpdated 22 Jul 20262 min read
Odds Movement Calculator
Enter the opening price and the price now. This separates the three numbers people use interchangeably.
The market moved this from a 33.3% chance to a 37.0% chance — before the bookmaker's margin, which inflates both.
How far the number fell.
What the market changed its mind by.
Beat the close, or missed it.
Those first two numbers describe the same move and never match — the price move is always the larger. Quoting it as though it were the change in probability is the most common way movement gets oversold.
Two numbers, one move#
A price falling from 3.00 to 2.70 is a 10% price move and a 3.7 percentage-point probability shift. Both describe the same event. Only the second one tells you what the market changed its mind about.
The reason they differ is that implied probability is the reciprocal of the price, so the same absolute move means less and less as prices lengthen. Ten percent off a 1.50 favourite is a far bigger revision than ten percent off a 10.00 outsider. Any time you see a dramatic-sounding percentage attached to a drifting outsider, this is why — and it is worth converting before believing it.
Both readings ignore the bookmaker's margin, which inflates every implied probability. Strip it first if you want the market's genuine estimate.
The third number is the useful one#
The CLV figure reads the same move from a bettor's side: if you took the opening price and it settled where it is now, that is your closing line value. Positive means you got a better price than the market's final word.
That is the honest use of movement. Chasing a steam move after it has happened means accepting the worse price by definition — the value was in the number that has gone. Tracking whether your bets tend to be on the right side of the move is the version that actually tells you something, because CLV is the closest thing to a leading indicator of skill that betting offers.
In Tofiko#
Rows whose price is shortening sharply carry a ↓ marker in the match list, and clicking the odds opens the price history behind it. Full detail in the odds movement guide; if you want to compare prices across books rather than over time, that is line shopping.
Related
- Odds Movement: Reading What the Market Changed Its Mind About
- Closing Line Value: The Only Scoreboard That Answers in a Season
- Line Shopping: The Edge That Needs No Forecasting Skill
- Fair Odds: What the Bookmaker's Margin Hides
- What Is Value Betting? A Plain-English Guide
- Closing Line Value Calculator — Grade a Bet Without Waiting for the Result
- Fair Odds Calculator — Remove the Bookmaker Margin from Any 1X2 Book
- Odds Converter — Decimal, Fractional, American & Implied Probability
- Expected Value Calculator — Is Your Bet +EV?
Frequently asked questions
What does it mean when odds shorten?
Money has come for that selection, or the bookmaker has revised its estimate — usually team news, weather, or a move copied from a sharper book. A shortening price means the market now rates the outcome more likely than it did.
How do you convert an odds move into a probability change?
Take 1 ÷ odds at each price and subtract. A move from 3.00 to 2.70 goes from 33.3% to 37.0% — a 3.7 percentage-point shift, even though the price itself fell 10%.
Is a 10% price move a 10% probability move?
No, and the gap is large. The price move is always the bigger number because implied probability is the reciprocal of the price. Quoting a price move as though it were a change in probability is the most common way market movement gets oversold.
Does following steam moves make money?
Following a move after it has happened means taking the worse price by definition — the value was in the number that has already gone. Movement is useful as evidence about your own bets, through closing line value, far more than as a signal to copy.